By Kelly YarnsWhen searching for my economics undergrad thesis topic I wanted to find something relevant to our local economy. I think the trend in forest management toward providing certain desirable forest conditions and away from providing timber is changing the wood products industries in Western Montana. Much of the wood thinned off western forests is small-diameter under-utilized trees. In our region, there is substantial effort to create and encourage value adding businesses to utilize this supply of small trees.
I’m going to try to create a supply and demand model for small-diameter timber in Western Montana but I need certain types of data that occurs over the course of at least five years. I need information on the prices value-adding business pay for small-diameter timber, an estimate of the quantities they used and data on other factors that influence supply and demand. I’m thinking that wildfire occurrence, fuel costs and housing industry trends impact how much of this stuff gets used. If anyone out there has any suggestions on where to find data or other what some other important factors that influence supply and demand for small-diameter timber might be, I could use your input.
I hope that my analysis of this market can help target economic development efforts to encourage innovative efforts to use small-diameter wood to create jobs, local products and sustainable economic growth.
2 comments:
Seems like there's huge supply. After 2000, all types of fire guys moved over to thinning on private to address fuels. That product probably was mostly piled and burned. Now we have a very large bark beetle infestation starting in central and eastern MT pine forests and so again there will be a boon on supply. Also, forest service timber sales now have put the burden on the purchasers to remove the small unmerchantable along with the commercial wood- but have no idea if thats resulted in prompting a market...built demand. At least from a pulp standpoint, be interesting to hear Smurfit Stone Container's take on pulp prices over the last eight years after wildfire and in lieu of high fuel prices more recently.
If you haven't already, check out www.TimberBySell.com. It's a unique website that brings together diverse interests within the woods product industry. You will get tons of information about small wood companies already getting after it. Also - note the Smallwood conference in Coeur d'Alene Idaho later this month. Lots of timber folks having to rethink their business models will be there. Craig Rawlings, with MCDC in Missoula Montana is your go to guy on this one.
Post a Comment